Terça-feira, Março 13, 2007

Nova queda da BOVESPA

A razão agora é o alto nível de inadimplência no mercado imobiliário americano. Lá nos EUA o índice Dow Jones caiu 1,97% e aqui o IBOVESPA caiu 3,4%. É interessante estar alerta para o fato de que a notícia de inadimplência no mercado imobiliário americano que atingiu cerca de 14,44% no quarto trimestre do ano passado, nas hipotecas para as categorias de crédito de maior risco, já era conhecida desde a semana passada e as Bolsas retomavam as altas com entusiasmo. Ora, se a inadimplência atingiu o índice citado para a faixa de financiamentos/hipotecas de maior risco, não me parece nada surpreendente. Daí ser a faixa de maior risco.
Surgiu também hoje, o indicador de vendas no varejo americano que subiu apenas 0,1%, quando era esperado uma elevação de 0,3%. Até que, para uma economia que há menos de um mês corria o risco de entrar em depressão, subir 0,1% não parece tão mal assim e também não muito distante da expectativa de 0,3%, se considerarmos a tolerância admitida em previsões do tipo.
Devemos estar atentos às jogadas que podem existir por trás da queda de hoje na BOVESPA. Vale lembrar que o mercado de Xangai, vilão da última queda, subiu hoje como vem acontecendo nos últimos dias. Hong Kong caiu apenas 0,56%. Na Europa o comportamento foi de queda, porém em níveis não alarmantes.
Considerando o excessivo atrelamento da Bolsa de São Paulo à Bolsa de Nova Iorque, poderíamos admitir, por aqui, uma queda no índice BOVESPA da ordem do Dow Jones americano, ou dos índices europeus.
Afinal de contas, é apregoado aos quatro ventos, por diversos analistas brasileiros e pelo próprio Governo, que os fundamentos da economia brasileira são sólidos e que não há risco de crise. Até posso concordar com colocações desse tipo, mas admitir que a Bolsa funciona dissociada desse cenário, aí é outra história.
Caso não houvesse a programação de vencimento de opções no próximo dia 19, o quadro seria o mesmo? ou será que a briga entre comprados e vendidos já deve estar começando, sendo usada a situação do mercado internacional como bode expiatório? Só o tempo dirá!

Compre aqui, é muito mais fácil!
- DVD Player - Progressive Scan e MP3 SD7050S Semp Toshiba - Frete grátis para Sul e Sudeste
Segurança - Video Porteiro Preto & Branco com Proteção Anti-Vandalismo - Bivolt
- Livro -
Investimentos: os Segredos de George Soros e Warren Buffett



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