Quarta-feira, Fevereiro 14, 2007

O mercado de ações

Verificamos desde ontem uma retomada das altas na BOVESPA. O suporte por volta dos 44.000 pontos não foi rompido, o que indicava que a Bolsa poderia chegar a essa nova fase de alta. Minha avaliação é de que as coisas ainda não estão consolidadas para se concluir por uma alta consistente. Senão, vejamos. Embora existam perspectivas de que o preço do barril de petróleo venha a se manter na faixa de US$ 55 a US$ 60, as ações da Petrobrás (carro-chefe da BOVESPA) vêm apresentando baixas nos últimos dias, por conta de seu balanço, que não foi conforme o esperado pelos analistas. Os papéis do setor siderúrgico vêm apresentando altas significativas. Qual o motivo? Será a pressão que a Comissão de Valores Mobiliários - CVM está fazendo sobre a Arcelor para que ela feche o capital do braço brasileiro, indicando para tal um valor (cerca de R$ 51,70) muito acima dos R$ 37,50 ventilados anteriormente? Até admitamos que a CVM está procurando proteger os acionistas minoritários, mas será que a Arcelor aceitará passivamente esta intromissão em seus negócios. Seria o primeiro caso em que o orgão fiscalizador atuaria com um certo rigor e a favor dos minoritários. Ou haverá uma contenda judicial a respeito? O fato é que esta posição da CVM pode ter "puxado" os preços dos papéis do setor siderúrgico, muito embora Vale do Rio Doce tenha bons fundamentos para a alta que vem apresentando e Siderúrgica Nacional esteja reformulando sua posição depois de perder a disputa pela siderúrgica Corus para os indianos. Mas um fato é certo: o plano de investimentos da Siderúrgica Nacional, de passar sua capacidade de produção para 50 milhões de toneladas, até 2010, precisa captar recursos e, para tanto, existe a possibilidade de lançar ações da mina Casa da Pedra.
O setor de telecomunicações não tem apresentado fatos novos significativos, muito embora Telemar e Brasil Telecom estejam negociando parcerias com Directv-Sky para atuarem no segmento de TV por assinatura, com pacotes próprios, com a intenção de tornar os preços da TV por assinatura mais atrentes. Fica a pergunta: a demanda comporta mais players neste segmento, embora a NET venha afirmando que o número de assinantes vem crescendo?
Acredito que, neste momento, cautela é um boa posição. Quem está dentro, não deve sair, mas quem está de fora, em minha opini~ao, deve aguardar o mercado ficar mais consistente para entrar.

Boas compras!
- Livro:Os
Segredos da Mente Milionária
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- Livro: A Outra Face do Poder

 
 

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