Quinta-feira, Julho 20, 2006

Hora de recuperação do mercado acionário?

Os analistas divergem em suas opiniões. Mantenho firme a posição de que o Ibovespa somente indicará tendência firme de alta quando for rompida e mantida a forte resistência na casa dos 37.200 pontos (ver post de 13/07), transformando-se em um novo suporte forte. Ontem o fechamento foi aos 36.785 pontos e hoje, o presidente do Fed fez um discurso mais ameno no Comitê de Bancos do Senado norte-americano, que animou os investidores americanos, com boa alta no índice Dow Jones (retomando os 11.000 pontos). Caso o Dow Jones venha a superar os 11.200 pontos, acredito que possa ser caracterizada a ecuperação dos mercados acionários, como um todo. Hoje, as bolsas asiáticas fecharam com altas significativas, com destaque para a de Tóquio (+3,08%) e a de Hong Kong(+2,33%). As bolsas européias já operam com ganhos, onde Paris tem ganho de 0,66%. O Índice da Bolsa de Tóquio fechou hoje próximo dos 15.000 pontos e a grande resistência está na casa dos 15.350 pontos. Já Hong Kong, fechou aos 16.470 pontos e a grande resistência a ser vencida está na casa dos 16.550 pontos. Ainda há muito chão a percorrer.
Com relação às ações no mercado brasileiro, ainda sou conservador e prefiro as blue-chips, embora as de menor peso apresentem ganhos respeitáveis, em algumas situações, mas o risco também é maior. Vale PNA, ontem apresentou um forte impulso, com alta de 5,66%. Uma forte resistência que precisa ser superada para um processo de recuperação está por volta de R$ 45,15 e a próxima, em R$ 48,00. vencidas estas barreiras, é bola prá frente. O alvo seria R$ 50,00.
Já Petrobras PN, que ontem fechou a R$ 43,65, com alta de 3,07, está muito sujeita às oscilações do valor do barril de petróleo no mercado internacional. A empresa está bem, com bom lucro e vencida a resistência a R$ 44,85, pode rumar aos R$ 48,00, em prazo relativamente curto.
Outro papel que precisa ser comentado é CSN ON. Em toda a turbulência do mercado, talvez tenha sido o papel, dentre as blue-chips, de menor perda. Caso venha a superar a resistência em R$ 73,10, seu alvo será R$ 77,60. Não podemos deixar de comentar os bons dividendos sempre pagos pela empresa. O quê também ocorre com Vale.
Por hoje é só!



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