Quinta-feira, Janeiro 04, 2007

Novos considerandos sobre Bolsa de Valores

Voltando ao post de ontem, comentava eu que poderia haver realização de lucros na BOVESPA, pois a euforia parecia estar em alta (além das cotações), as Bolsas européias apresentavam-se em baixa e as asiáticas haviam subido, função de uma recuperação do mercado japonês. Não deu outra!
Mas e hoje? O que pode acontecer? Vamos analisar o que temos disponível: ; bolsas asiáticas em baixa, exceto Japão e Shangai; Bolsas européias abrindo em baixa, por conta dos preços das commodities (petróleo, cobre) que estão caindo e os indicadores de serviços apresentando tendência de perda de fôlego; ontem as Bolsas americanas operaram sem definição, por conta de indefinida minuta de ata do Fomc -
Federal Open Market Committee, com preocupações sobre inflação por lá. Por aqui, estes fatores poderão apresentar reflexos, o que levaria a BOVESPA a nova queda hoje, muito embora ontem o risco país tenha se apresentado no menor nível desde que começou a ser avaliado. Olho vivo e barbas de molho!
Continuando a história, minha dedicação aos estudos sobre o mercado financeiro foram se intensificando. Sempre que o tempo me permitia aprofundava-me um pouco mais, até porque, o trabalho me consumia muito, com constantes viagens. Na primeira oportunidade que tive fiz um curso de análise gráfica no IBMEC - Instituto Brasileiro de Mercado de Capitais. Eu e mais dois amigos. Foi muito importante, pois ali conclui que algumas coisas eu, pelo menos, não deveria fazer, pois trazia um alto risco envolvido e eu não tinha cacife para tanto. refiro-me aos mercados de opções, a termo e futuro. O jogo era e continua sendo pesado, onde os contendores têm cacife suficiente, até para influenciar sobre as cotações do mercado à vista. É preciso acompanhar de perto estes mercados para procurar descobrir a tendência.
O resultado do curso foi excelente. Tirei minhas conclusões e as sigo até hoje, sem arrependimento. Conclui, por exemplo, que analisar os indicadores econômico-financeiros das empresas é importante, mas não fator decisivo em termos de tendência para as cotações das ações de uma determinada empresa na Bolsa de Valores. Em minha avaliação, a análise técnica, ou gráfica, oferece mais indicações sobre tendências e humores do mercado.
Decorrência do curso, adquiri um software brasileiro para análise gráfica, denominado TRUNFO, que não mais está disponível. Usei-o durante muitos anos, com bastante sucesso. A opção pela análise gráfica como a melhor ferramenta para decidir sobre meus investimentos no mercado financeiro e considerando que o TRUNFO era apenas uma ferramenta gráfica, que não oferecia os fundamentos de cada um dos indicadores objeto de análise, fui atrás de algo que trouxesse a base teórica para minhas avaliações. Foi então que encontrei um livro (na realidade, um tijolo! - aquilo na cabeça de qualquer um é uma arma mortífera!) americano cujo título é "Technical Analysis of the Future Markets" e o autor John J. Murphy. Minha bíblia até hoje. Aprendi muito e continuo consultando. Embora sua primeira edição seja de 1986, é uma publicação completamente atual.
Depois disso, o TRUNFO saiu do mercado e procurei outro software que me auxiliasse nas análises gráficas dos papéis e fui bater no MetaStock. Grande software! Embora possua uma versão antiga, continuo me valendo de seus excelentes serviços e não vejo motivos para mudar, ou buscar uma versão mais nova. Ao começar a usar o MetaStock deparei-me com a dificuldade da atualização, pois o mesmo foi desenvolvido visando o mercado americano. Conversando com meu filho mais velho Cristiano, expert na área de desenvolvimento de sistemas e programação, verificamos que a BOVESPA continuava disponibilizando, ao final do dia, arquivos com todas as movimentações do dia, tal como na época do TRUNFO, embora com outro lay-out. Restava a tarefa de tornar estes arquivos compatíveis com a entrada de dados do MetaStock. Isto foi feito pelo Cristiano, que passou a distribuir via e-mail e sob assinatura, um arquivo denominado BDI, que permite a atualização diária do MetaStock, ao final do pregão. Quem desejar, pode ser assinante para receber os dados, bastando manter contato com Cristiano.
Até a próxima e bons negócios.

 
 

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