Segunda-feira, Julho 10, 2006

Seria uma boa aposta voltar para o BOVESPA?

Em resposta à consulta formulada pelo Rodrigo.
Minha avaliação: acredito que ainda é cedo para concluirmos que a volatilidade dos mercados está diminuindo. Preferiria esperar mais um pouco (um mês, talvez), para uma avaliação melhor. Quanto a inflação em baixa, você tem razão, mas e os juros? Continuarão caindo na velocidade em que seria possível, face a queda da inflação? Para as taxas de inflação que estamos vivendo nos últimos meses, os juros estão em níveis bastante conservadores. Não podemos esquecer que estamos em ano eleitoral e os gastos públicos tendem a aumentar nesta época. Seria esta uma política de cautela do Banco Central? Penso que tem chance de ser.
Acredito que precisamos ficar muito atentos aos indicadores da economia americana, pois a Bolsa brasileira tem fortes vínculos com as Bolsas americanas, até porque o volume de ADR's por lá é significativo em termos de mercado de capitais brasileiros. Qualquer respingo por lá, será tempestade por aqui.
Respondendo objetivamente à sua pergunta, acredito que apostar em voltar para a Bolsa depende do seu perfil de investidor e de trabalho com fatores de risco. Conforme o último post que publiquei na sexta-feira, dia 07/07, vejo que o Ibovespa está atravessando uma dura fase de teste de resistências e suportes. Acompanhando o comportamento gráfico do índice, vejo que o Ibovespa tem grande chance de romper a resistência a 37.000 pontos por volta da quarta-feira próxima, dia 12/07, a se manter a situação atual. Caso isto aconteça, virá pela frente a forte resistência em 39.000 pontos. Desde 26/05 o Ibovespa não consegue romper esta resistência. Caso a convergência das Bandas de Bollinger continuem com a conformação atual, poderá haver o rompimento da resistência em 39.000 pontos. E aí, bola prá frente, evidentemente que com os cuidados que investimento em bolsa requer. Uma coisa posso lhe garantir: quem entrou comprando entre 16/06 e 23/06, quando verificou-se uma pequeníssima acumulação, só teve alegria. Acredito numa boa tendência para a Bolsa, apesar do baixo volume que vem sendo negociado, o que representa uma certa cautela por parte dos investidores. Não jogo todas as minhas fichas no mercado de capitais, por razões óbvias, nem recomendo que alguém o faça. Acredito que a hora é convidativa.



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